Betting the UK Election

The upcoming June General Election in the UK has been framed as a vote of confidence on the current Prime Minister and an affirmation of the previous BREXIT vote. Unless an unforeseen event arises in the next few weeks, this framing presents a great opportunity to bet on the Election as a “sure thing”; namely, that the current PM and her Conservatives will form the next government at -700.

The previous BREXIT vote saw the country split 52/48 on that option. The current Conservative government and the UKIP party are the only two standing on that side of the ledger with all other parties seen as advocating for a REMAIN position. Within that split, a great many UKIP supporters are moving over to the governing Conservatives in the belief that the best way to ensure BREXIT is to ensure a pro-BREXIT party obtains a majority and control of the Government.

Further buttressing Conservative standing is the secondary element of the Election: Which party is best suited to negotiate a favourable BREXIT deal with the EU?  This again draws further support to the Conservatives as even some on the REMAIN side are deciding to favour the Conservatives in the belief that if BREXIT is a reality it is best to negotiate the most pro-UK deal possible — a result that can only be done with a pro-BREXIT party at the negotiating table.  In short, the Conservatives will be getting support from the majority that supported BREXIT and from those on the REMAIN side that want the UK to get the best deal possible with the EU on leaving.

Current odds see the Conservatives at -1200 to win a majority, but the odds of PM May forming the next Government are only at -700. I am taking advantage of that discrepancy and what I noted above to bet on the May-led Conservatives to earn a majority and form the next government at -700.  The bet won’t be as lucrative as my bet on TRUMP to win the US Presidency, but it is certainly more of a “sure thing” as a consequence of how the Election has been framed and voters segregated on the two main issues.

Update: The London terrorist attacks in the week before the Election and May’s confused response to it may have been that unforeseen event that changed the course of history.  The bet was good value when made (which is all you can ask for in gambling as value-betting will prevail over the long-run), but is now more uncertain.

Update 2:  We still won!